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Dark Confidant

Dark Confidant(often nicknamed Bob) is an interesting card because of it's ability to let you draw one free card every turn after you play it, but at a variable cost of life. This cost can be assumed to equal to the average casting cost of your entire deck (including lands, which are 0 mana), making it more tedious than confusing to figure out. One thing to keep in mind, though, is while your deck will probably not average out to much, it could topdeck your most expensive card at a vital point, making it's use rather risky, unless you have a method to know and alter the order of your top few cards. Also note that it reveals your cards to your opponent, letting him know at least half of what you have in your hand at any given time.

Dark Confidant is nicknamed Bob after the card's creator, Bob Maher. Bob won the right to have the card he designed be created by winning the 2004 Magic Invitational.

Statistical Analysis

Dark Confidant's effect can dramatically change the way a deck wants to play out. Drawing an extra card per turn should lead fairly directly to playing an extra card per turn, while simultaneously reducing the number of lands required to make each land drop. A turn by turn analysis follows. Note that this analysis is identical to the one which would occur for Howling Mine and several other cards. The first analysis shall assume we are on the play.

First turn The Dark Confidant cannot affect our draw on the first turn so this is the usual minimum 9 one drops to have drawn one and similar 9 lands, totaling 18 cards.

Second turn Again, the Confidant does not affect our draws so we still have the Basic Curve which tells us we want 8 two drops and 15 land, bringing our running total to 32 cards.

Third turn From here on we will assume that we have draw and played a Confidant on turn two to give the most extreme variation from the basic. This turn having draw 2 cards we want to play to spells and make our third land drop. So we should have our third land, second one drop and second two drop in these 10 cards. Now we have 12 one drops, 12 two drops, and 18 land, for a total of 42 cards.

Fourth turn This turn we play two 2-drops and a land, which means we desire 20 of each in the deck, for a total of 52 cards.

Fifth turn Another land, 2-drop, and finally a 3-drop lead us to 21 2-drops/land, and 4 three drops, totaling the deck out at 60 cards.

Comparison (Basic Curve / Confidant Curve)

60 Cards, Play First

Basic Curve

9 One-Drops, 8 Two-Drops, 8 Three-Drops, 11 Four-Drops, 24 Land.

Confidant Curve

12 One-Drops, 21 Two-Drops, 4 Three-Drops, 21 Land.

The basic curve makes 1 play per turn for the first five turns totaling 5 plays while the Confidant curve makes a total of 8 plays over the same five turns. The Confidant curve also manages to make the fifth land drop with fewer land.

60 Cards, Draw First

Basic Curve

8 One-Drops, 7 Two-Drops, 6 Three-Drops, 5 Four-Drops, 9 Five-Drops, 25 Land.

Confidant Curve

11 One-Drops, 21 Two-Drops, 4 Three-Drops, 3 Four-Drops, 21 Land.

Here the basic curve again makes 1 play per turn, this time for 6 turns. Where as the Confidant curve goes 1/2/1+2/2+2/2+3/1+4 missing the sixth land drop just like the basic curve. The Confidant curve here makes 10 plays over 6 turns.

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